AI market forecasts describe very different economic pools, from hyperscaler infrastructure buildout to the much smaller enterprise demand product managers can monetize. At the same time, model costs are falling, workload intensity is shifting, and CIO budgets remain finite. This note explains why adoption is not revenue and how to normalize forecasts before using them for TAM. It also shows why enterprise packaging should stay simple and predictable, and provides an economic reconciliation framework, built from the customer economy backward, for testing whether an AI offer is understandable, valuable, and sustainable.
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